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DK’S CHART OF THE DAY
BITCOIN TETHER 12 HOUR 🔬

Bitcoin has continued to drift lower over the past week, with price action on the 12-hour chart forming a falling wedge pattern. Each attempt to push higher since the August 13th all-time high has been rejected at the wedge’s upper trendline, keeping momentum tilted to the downside.

For now, I’m watching three key support levels based on the recent Fibonacci retracement range (from the $98K low to the $124.6K high):

$107,500 – Golden Pocket support and first area to look for a bounce$105,500 – aligning with the lower boundary of the wedge$103,900 – the deeper 0.786 retracement levelMomentum indicators remain heavy on the higher timeframes (weekly, 5-day, and 3-day), suggesting that bears are still in control. However, the daily and 2-day charts are showing early signs that they could begin to turn upward, which might lead to a short-term relief bounce.

In the near term, $117,000 is the key level to reclaim. A sustained move above and hold there would be the first sign of strength. Until then, we have to be cautious of any rally that stalls into a lower high and rolls back over, with downside risk extending toward $100K if major supports fail.

At this stage, my base case is that Bitcoin finds support either at $107,500 or $105,500 and begins to stabilize. If those levels hold, we can reassess for a potential grind higher.

For now, patience is key—bears remain in control until proven otherwise.

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T’S HOOTS OF ENLIGHTENMENT

WHEN IS THIS BULL RUN OVER?💡

A growing chorus of market watchers warns that Bitcoin’s (and by extension, the broader crypto market’s) bull run may be reaching its climax—possibly as soon as October 2025. Analysts highlight historical patterns: past Bitcoin bull cycles have lasted around 1,060 days, and if that rhythm holds, this phase could peak by autumn.

Moreover, September traditionally ranks as Bitcoin’s weakest month, adding weight to the argument for an impending top.

On-chain metrics also raise red flags: CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score recently dropped to 20, suggesting a potential shift towards bearish sentiment.

That said, some analysts remain bullish on a longer runway. Bernstein projects that institutional adoption and favorable regulation could extend the bull phase into 2026 or even 2027, diverging from the conventional four‑year cycle  . Other forecasts from Token Metrics present a range of scenarios: a bear-case ending around March 2026, a base case by June 2026, and an optimistic “moon” case stretching to November 2026.

In summary: while several technical and historical signals point to October 2025 as a possible bull-market peak, longer-term models suggest the rally could persist well into 2026.

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