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🦉 What Really Drives Altcoin Seasons?
Crypto firm Tether eyes $500 billion valuation in major raise, ow gold, bitcoin are moving beyond market hedge and boosting investment income

GM 🦉 This is Daily Gains! Time for your latest crypto news in 5 minutes!
In Today’s Crypto World:


OWLGO’S NEWS NEST
3 TRENDING HEADLINES 💡

DEGEN PLAYS
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MAC’S VEVE & NFT
STAR WARS ANAKIN SKYWALKER #1

DK’S CHART OF THE DAY
BITCOIN USDT PERPETUAL 8 HOUR 🔬

Chart by: www.tacticaltradinghub.com
After pushing up into the macro golden pocket at $117,875, Bitcoin rejected, forming what appears to be a macro lower high relative to the August 13th peak at $124,600. The most recent swing high came in on September 18th, and with higher-timeframe money flow turning negative and the overall trend still down, the broader structure remains bearish.
Even if we see a bounce in the short term, it’s more likely to result in yet another lower high, eventually rolling over into a new lower low beneath the $107,000 level.
If $107,000 is lost, the next major zone of interest lies between the macro 0.786 Fibonacci retracement at ~$103,700 and the support at the $98,000 level. This range would be the logical area to watch for a potential bounce or consolidation.
At that point, the focus shifts to the higher timeframes (daily, 2-day, etc.). Right now, those charts are still showing bearish continuation signals. For any sustainable reversal, we’ll need to see them start to flip and print signs of bullish momentum.
Until that happens, the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Even if we catch a short-term relief rally, the bigger picture points toward continuation of the downtrend.
It is what it is at this stage in the cycle—respect the trend until the higher timeframes prove otherwise.
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OWL’S EYE VIEW
CRYPTO VIDEO SPOTLIGHT - ENTERING THE FINAL PHASE? 🔦

T’S HOOTS OF ENLIGHTENMENT
IS THE TOP IN?💡

Arguments supporting a top now:
1. Four-year halving cycles: Traditionally, Bitcoin (and by extension much of crypto) follows a ~4-year cycle tied to halving events — with peaks occurring during the post-halving “blow-off” phase. Some analysts believe that we are approaching the late stage of that cycle.
2. Signs of distribution / weakening momentum: On-chain metrics and technical indicators in past cycles often flatten or diverge ahead of a major peak.
3. Liquidity and macro risks: Interest rates, monetary policy and capital flows increasingly dominate crypto moves. If liquidity tightens, that could precipitate a top.
Arguments against a top (or that the theory is weakening):
1. Extended cycle / “supercycle” ideas: Some analysts argue that the traditional 4-year cycle is losing relevance, with cycles stretching out due to institutional flows, regulatory maturation, and macro dynamics.
2. Liquidity-driven regime: Rather than timing by halvings, crypto cycles may increasingly be driven by external liquidity (Fed policy, global credit cycles).
3. Lack of a clear blow-off top yet: Some in the market suggest we may still have room to run before the final exhaustion phase (i.e. the “blow-off”).
It’s plausible that we are entering the later stages of the cycle, and a peak could come within months. But given that macro/liquidity dynamics now play an outsized role, I doubt the “top” is locked in yet. There’s still upside potential, though risk of a sharp reversal is rising.
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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.